Square Pegs into Round Holes – How Should Leeds United line up next season (Part 1)

“I’m solid from the shoulders down.” said a friend and ex-Rugby playing teammate of mine once when discussing his new gym routine for the forthcoming season.

“Solid from the neck up too!” replied his girlfriend, which drew more than a few laughs and much spluttering of beer.

Come a different sport and a new season and Leeds United have a similar necessity for solidity; the matter in case here being, in general, a more consistently solid defence and, in particular, a more dependable centre back partnership. Amidst the clamour for ‘quality signings’ after Massimo Cellino’s takeover at Elland Road, Leeds supporters are focusing their worries around these areas – especially at a defence that shipped goal after goal, at times, like water running through a very large-holed sieve.

Leeds’ final Championship table 2013/14

	P	W	D	L	CS*	F	A	PTS	PPG**
Leeds	46	16	9	21	10	59	67	57	1.24
	Promotion Playoff place					Automatic Promotion
	72 pts		1.57			93 pts		2.02

Source – Statto.com

* CS – Clean Sheets

** PPG – Points Per Game

This 15^th place finish was indicative of Leeds’ 2013/14 campaign in the Championship; one that had initial promise yet petered out weakly into a crawl away from relegation and left Leeds’ supporters thinking about what might have been. On Christmas Day 2013, Leeds’ fans were opening their presents, saying their “Thank yous” and looking happily at a Championship table showing them in the final Playoff place with 34 points; then it all went wrong, spectacularly wrong.

Leeds’ Championship table pre and post-Christmas.

	P	W	D	L	CS	FTS*	F	A	GD	PTS	PPG
03 Aug – 25 Dec 2013	21	10	4	7	7	6	32	23	+9	34	1.62
26 Dec – 03 May 2014	25	6	5	14	3	8	27	44	-17	23	0.92

Source – Statto.com

* FTS – Fail to Score

What can be seen from the pre/post-Christmas tables is that attacking production dried up and defensive production dropped massively. Pre-Christmas in the 2013/14 season Leeds United were averaging 1.5 goals per game; post-Christmas this dropped to 1.08 goals per game. Defensively though, the figures are much worse – pre-Christmas Leeds were conceding only 1.09 goals per game; in the period from Christmas up until the season’s end on 3^rd May 2014 Leeds were conceding 1.76 goals per game. Obviously, this defensive shortfall was the cardinal reason behind Leeds United’s sudden drop in fortunes and the main reason behind the spiral towards what was a relegation dogfight which was only eased with 10 points from their final 5 games.

It’s all too easy to single out individual players and say things such as “Player A commits too many basic errors” or “Player B’s positioning is awful and he allows the opposition too much time on the ball” etc. etc. ad nauseum.

What is interesting about Leeds United’s 2013/14 Championship campaign is that they did not have one settled formation with only minor deviations to suit the playing style of particular opponents or tweaks to negate opponent’s particular strengths. During the 2013/14 season, Leeds employed 7 different formations with varying degrees of success.

Picture credit - Birmingham Mail www.birminghammail.co.uk

 Leeds United’s tactical formations – Championship season 2013/14

	Games	W	D	L	F	A	Pts	% of Pts*	GF p/g**	GA p/g***
4-4-2	13	2	4	7	9	21	10	25.64	0.7	1.61
5-3-2	13	6	3	4	22	15	21	53.85	1.7	1.15
4-1-2-1-2	8	3	-	5	6	11	9	37.5	0.75	1.36
4-3-3	5	2	1	2	2	7	7	46.67	2	1.4
3-5-2	5	3	1	1	12	6	10	66.67	2.4	1.2
3-4-3	1	-	-	1	-	6	0	0	0	6
4-5-1	1	-	-	1	-	1	0	0	0	1

Source – Whoscored.com

*% of Pts – percentage of points available

** GF p/g – Goals For per game

*** GA p/g – Goals Against per game

The two most numerously deployed formations by Leeds United, the standard 4-4-2 and the more defensively-minded 5-3-2 (deployed 13 times each so covering 57% of Leeds games in the 2013/14 Championship season) returned differing fortunes for the team. The other tactical formations that were used collectively returned 43% of the available points (obviously) and with a GF p/g of 1 and a GA p/g of 1.55. Statistically-speaking, the 5-3-2 formation employed by Leeds was the one that reaped the most rewards for them with an overall return of 21 points (from a maximum of 39 available) and yielding GF p/g and GA p/g figures of 1.7 and 1.15 respectively; these figures being akin to those achieved by the 6^th placed team at the end of the season.

However, I’d like to throw another spanner in the works to highlight just how effective the 5-3-2 formation was for Leeds United during  the 2013/14 Championship campaign. It was employed in two main blocks: one was between 26^th October (game vs Huddersfield – a 3-2 loss) to 1^st January (game vs Blackburn – a 2-1 loss) whilst the other was 3 games towards the end of the season; these being vs Blackpool (2-0 win), vs Barnsley (1-0 win) and finally vs Derby (1-1 draw). If we look at its deployment as part of the run up to 25^th December, as part of the first run of 5-3-2 games, it makes interesting reading. This is further compounded if we than look at the fortunes of the team after it was then neglected after 1^st January loss to Blackburn before being picked up again for the 2-0 win against Blackpool on April 12^th.

Table comparing Leeds United’s performance with/without using 5-3-2 formation

Games played using 5-3-2 formation 26-10-13 to 25-12-13
P	W	D	L	CS	FTS	F	A	GD	PTS	PPG*	RANK**
9	5	2	2	4	2	18	10	+8	17	1.89	3rd
Games played without using 5-3-2 formation 01-01-14 to 11.04.14
17	3	3	11	1	7	17	35	-18	12	0.71	23rd

Source – Statto.com

* PPG – Points per game

** RANK – Rank in division based on figures

When looking at it as starkly as this, the top section of the table, with a PPG figure of 1.89 is equivalent to what Derby County achieved with their 3^rd place finish in the Championship last season (actual PPG for Derby was 1.85). Conversely, the lower section of the table, with a PPG figure of only 0.71 is actually lower than the end of season PPG figure achieved by the bottom club Yeovil Town (who finished on 37 points and with a PPG figure of 0.80).

Looking at Leeds United’s performance in this light shows two things: how well the 5-3-2 system worked for them last season in putting them into a strong position as potential promotion playoff contenders by Christmas and also that, after it was abandoned following the 2-1 loss to Blackburn on January 1^st, Leeds went into the freefall form most likened to ‘nailed-on’ relegation candidates.

Now I’m not advocating that if Leeds had adopted the 5-3-2 across the whole of the 46 game season that they’d have finished up in a playoff position, but it is interesting to note that once they abandoned its use at the turn of 2014 their season took on a whole different perspective.

It will be interesting to see what Coach Hockaday utilises next season as his ‘go-to’ formation; that will largely depend on the personnel left over from the 2013/14 campaign and what other players are drafted in to accompany new outfield signings Gerardo Berardi (signed from Sampdoria), Tommaso Bianchi (signed from Sassuolo) and Souleymane Doukara (signed from Catania)